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Perspectives For American Labour
The American working class is one hundred million strong. It is the largest and potentially the most powerful working class in the capitalist world. Nineteen million American workers are organised in trade unions. This is the largest trade union movement internationally. The processes taking place within this powerful working class will have a major effect on international developments. The developing world revolution must be viewed with the US working class in mind.
During the years of the post war boom US capitalism experienced rapid economic growth. Because of this, and because of its dominant position as the most powerful of all the capitalist powers, it was able to reap super profits. These made possible concessions to its own working class when the great strike movements of the 1940's, 1950's, 1960's and early 1970's took place.
As a result, US capitalism was able to contain the movement of the working class within the boundaries of capitalism. The strike movements did not seek to challenge private ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, nor capitalism's control over the state apparatus. Politically, organised labour remained tied to a capitalist party, the Democrats.
Boom
During this period the labour leaders committed themselves totally to making gains within capitalism. Given this stance by the labour leaders, and the economic upswing, illusions in capitalism were strengthened among the working class as workers found it possible to buy a home, a car or even two cars, to send some of their children to college and have an annual holiday. By 1972 US workers had the highest living standards in the world. The boom, and the domination of US capitalism over its rivals, created the material basis for a rise in illusions in capitalism and the relative quiet and the non-socialist character of US labour in the post war years.
The post war boom ended with the recession of 1974-75. World trade and world investment have since been growing at half the rates of the 1950's and 1960's. In this new economic environment, and with its world markets and home market increasingly eaten into by its rivals, US capitalism has broken with the traditions of the 1950's and 1960's. Now instead of concessions being won by the working class concessions are being demanded from it. All that was gained in
22
By Sean Heron
the boom is now under attack.
The intention of US capitalism is to drive the US working class into poverty over the next ten years. The US economy is to be changed from a high wage economy into a low wage economy.
The minimum wage in 1958 was 58 per cent of the average non-supervisory wage in the private sector. By 1981 it was 51% and by 1986 it was down to 38%. Between 1963 and 1978 28 per cent of new jobs were at poverty or near poverty wages. Between 1978 and 1984 487 of new jobs were at poverty or near poverty wages. Unrealistically optimistic forecasts of US capitalism predict that 11 million new jobs will be created in the next ten years. They also predict that 90% of these would be at minimum wages, ie below the poverty level.
Two tier wage systems are being pushed through in industry after industry, with newly hired workers being paid less than the existing workforce to do the same job. New contracts in many industries contain cuts in hourly rates. Workers are being laid off and work rules changed to increase the work load on those left. Work is being transferred—out-sourced—from union shops to non-union to reduce the cost of wages and benetits.
Safety controls in the workplaces are being reduced. Health-care costs are increasingly transferred to the workers. Social programmes are being cut. Education cuts are increasing, grants are being reduced and students forced to take out loans to pay for their education.
Fourteen per cent of Americans and 20% of American children now live in poverty. Thirty-one per cent of black Americans and 29% of Latinos live in poverty. Between 1972 and 1984 real earnings fell by 14%. In the 1950's an American worker could buy a house, one of the essential features of the American dream, for 14% of one gross income. By 1986 it took 44% of one gross income. For today's younger generation of workers buying a house is no longer possible.
The material basis which allowed for the strengthened illusions in capitalism
and the relative quiet and non-socialist character of US labour in the post war
period is now being dismantled. As this
process continues the illusions will also be
stripped away. The movement will
rediscover the militancy of the 1930's and
will also begin to turn to political action
and to seek alternatives to capitalism.
This will not be an even process. The
sustained attacks on living standards since
the mid-1970's have been accompanied,
not by a rise in strike activity but by a fall in the number of strikes. A short pause where the movement drew its breath after the strike wave of 1970 to 1975 was all but inevitable. However the reason for the decline in strikes lasting from 1975 through to 1985 has been the role of the union leadership.
When the employers came looking for cuts in wages and benefits, a process started with Chrysler in 1979 and continued ever since, the union leaders went along with their demands. The employers said that unless costs were cut jobs would be lost to imports or the work being done by union labour would go to non-union labour in the United States.
Alternative
The union leaders have no belief that the working class can build an alternative system to capitalism. As a result they believe that mobilising the working class can only lead to chaos. With the belief that there is no alternative to capitalism they bow to the laws of capitalism and its god - profit. These leaders campaigned among their members for wage and benefit cuts. They assured the workers that they would only be temporary and that they would save jobs. Foreign labour costs and non-union US labour costs must be undercut, they argued.
Despite the union leaders campaign for concessions the workers demonstrated their desire to fight. This was evidenced in the Solidarity march in 1981 when half a million marched in Washington, the strike wave in the last five months of 1983 and the rise in strikes in late 1985 and throughout 1986.
1986 saw the longest steel strike in US history and a wave of strikes in transport, communications and manufacturing. Municipal workers also came out for the first time since 1980. Previously nonmilitant sections such as flight attendants and nurses also took action. The employers met this strike wave with the biggest number of lockouts in post war history.
In spite of the workers desire to fight, the employers' offensive, coupled with the role of the top union leaders, and the lack of any unified nationwide alternative at shop floor level, resulted in the movement being thrown onto the defensive over the past decade. Most strikes have resulted in concessions being wrested from the workers.
The policies of the union leaders which lead to this are now being exposed in the eyes of many union members. In Dallas construction union leaders advised cuts in wages and benefits to compete with nonunion construction labour. When union wages had been brought down to the level
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of non-union wages the employers rais-
ed non-union wages above union and
smashed the unions. In auto, after billions
of dollars in concessions, and with the
economy still growing, General Motors
has announced 29,000 more jobs to go.
Most of the blue-chip companies in the
US such as IBM and General Electric have also recently announced new job losses. Events are showing that wage cuts do not save jobs and that the employers demands for concessions are not temporary.
These developments are giving rise to increased opposition in the rank and file of the unions to the leadership. One of the most prestigious journals of US capitalism, Business Week, recently stated that the gap between the union rank and file and the leadership is the widest since the 1920's. In the United Auto Workers (VAW) a new opposition is crystallising. Called 'New Directions' it is opposed to any concessions and is fighting for a 32 hour week. Opposition groups such as the 'Teamsters for a Democratic Union' are also gaining support.
Coupled to their agreement with the employers' demands for new concessions, the union leaders have been raising the demand for import controls. Their acceptance of capitalism as the only system leads them to agree not only with cuts in wages and benefits, but also to campaign for protection for US capitalism from its rivals.
This demand for protectionism is getting a powerful response from US workers. Because the union leaders offer no socialist alternative it appears the only way out. The truth is that it will lead to a catastrophe.
In 1930 the Smoot Hawley Act was passed. It sought to protect US agriculture and industry from its rivals. By 1932 US exports were one quarter of the level of 1929 as retaliation struck. Auto exports were worth $541 million in 1929. By 1932 they were worth only $76 million. By 1933 approximately 15 million were unemployed-an equivalent figure today would be 30 million-and wages had been cut by 45% throughout industry.
The reality is that there is no way out for US workers on the basis of capitalism. The exceptional period of the post war boom is over. US and world capitalism is once again trapped in the crisis of overproduction as explained by Marx. With the extent of monopolisation that exists today, and with the use of computers, demand can now be more accurately forecast, so the tendency to overproduction increasingly expresses itself as overcapacity.
In upswings 80% of capacity is used. In recessions 70% is used. With this spare capacity the profits that are extracted from the working class are not ploughed
Reagan has never received more than 27% of the votes of eligible voters in the US. Voter turn out in Presedential elections is just over 50%. In the November 1986 mid-term elections 112 million eligible voters - 63% - did not vote.
back into new factories and machinery. Instead they are used for speculation in the stock exchange, in property, and in currency dealings. As a result new inflationary pressures are created. As capital spending slows—it fell in the US by 2.5% in 1986-the onus for keeping economic growth going increasingly falls on consumer spending.
Reagan has been keeping the economic upswing going by increased arms spending-the production of scrap metal-and by heaping debt on the consumers and the Federal government. By 1986 27% of US consumers had no satings left. up from 19% in 1985. The Federal debt remained at over $2(0 hillion for 1986 and is unsustainable over the medium term.
Recession
A new recession will strike in the coming one to two years. Unemployment will rise from the present 7% to 12% and more. Inflation will explode as the effects of a falling dollar, the deficits, the speculation and the arms spending take hold. Protectionism will also explode. In 1975 8% of imports were restricted in some way. In 1980 12%, and in 1986 22%. The coming recession will at least be deeper than the 1982 recession. It is not totally excluded that it could assume 1929-33 proportions.
This coming recession will further drive home the new situation of US and world capitalism. US capitalism can no longer afford to keep US workers at the living standards of the last 40 years. In the 200 years up to 1980 the US National Debt rose to $914 billion. In the last 6 years it has doubled to $2,000 billion. The US is
now the number one world. It owes $200 is owed.
No amount of concessions on wages or benefits can solve the crisis. In fact the lunacy of the union leaders' policy is shown by the fact that the more wages are cut the more the fundamental crisis of the US and world capitalist economies— insufficient demand-is exacerbated. With all the capitalist countries moving to cut wages and thus demand, US and world capitalism faces the greatest economic crisis since the 1930's.
It is a law of history that no class gives up what it has gained in struggle without a fight. In spite of the setbacks of the past ten years the US working ciass will brilliantly confirm this law. An indication of the movement to come is the strike wave of late 1985 and 1986. The mood to fight back is hardening in US workers. Anger is increasing as living standards fall. Insecurity strikes deep into the psychology of the workers and prepares the basis for a powerful rage that will explode in the coming period. The lack of a future for youth on minimum wage jobs or as unemployed prepares the youth for struggle and increases the anger of the older workers as well.
In spite of the role of the leadership a new movement will unfold. The greatest movement of US labour took place in 1936-37 when the sit-down strikes built the Congress of Industrial Organisations (CIO). The defeats of 1929 to 1933, the fall in union membership from 4 million in 1920 to 2.6 million in 1934, the determined opposition of the majority of the American Federation of Labour (AFL) leaders to organise the unorganised, were all overcome in a magnificent wave of sit-
23
debtor billion
nation in the more than it
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MIR Summer 1987: America down strikes which increased union membership more than threefold to 10 million members during the years 1933 to 1937.
The traditions of US labour are of periods of lull and setback followed by explosive leaps forward. The coming fightback of US labour will follow this pattern. A new movement into the unions will develop. Union membership reached 22 million in 1975 up from 15 million in 1950. It has since fallen to 19 million. This was mainly due to plant closures in the most highly organised sectors. The fall in union membership is small, at approximately 15%, compared to the 40% between 1920 and 1933. This fall has also been slowing up. In 1984 union membership declined by 377,000, in 1985 by 344,000, and in 1986 by only 21,000. In Californa union membership increased overall in 1985. Eighty per cent of the new members were women. In healthcare over 20% of the workforce is now Unions Fifty-eight per cent of the population approve of unions. Seventy-five per cent believe that unions improve wages and benefits. Fifty-three per cent of nonunion service workers are favourably inclined towards unionisation. This is in spite of the terrorism of the employers against workers who seek to organise and in spite of the union leaders' role. Union wages and benefits are 30% higher on average than non-union. Yet the union leaders refuse to campaign to organise the unorganised around this fact. As in the fight against concessions they are paralysed in the struggle to organise the unorganised by their refusal to challenge the laws of capitalism. They accept the argument of the employers that the economy cannot afford higher wages. They fear to highlight the 30% gap between union and non-union income as the employers would try to use this to argue Twenty per cent of US industry is unused, 35% of cultivatable agricultural land is unused, the surplus extracted from the working class is squandered on speculation, mergers, arms building or forced as underdeveloped countries or US farmers and consumers who cannot afford to pay these loans back.
If the union leaders highlighted this reality and campaigned for a $10 an hour minimum wage, guaranteed jobs and houses for all, a free health service and free education, then the unorganised would stream into the unions. In spite of this lack of lead a new movement will develop and the unions will be doubled and trebled in great sweeping unionisation drives over the next 5 to 10 years. The role of the union leaders, the role of the Democrats, how quick the movement can change and the balance of forces in US society were demonstrated in recent developments in Seattle, Washington State. The employers united to support Lockhead shipyard in locking out its unionised workforce and replacwith non-union. Lockhead ing them argued that the lock-out was the result of an industrial dispute and in this way the workers unemployment The union leaders looked for help to the Democrats who controlled the state legislature. The workers followed this lead. The Democrats refused to help. When this became clear the mood changed in hours. From passively waiting on the Democrats the workers raised the demand for a state wide general strike. The talk was of the 1919 Seattle general strike, how it had closed the city and how this could be done again. With support begining to appear in other workplaces, including Boeings the biggest employer in the area, the employers took fright. Within hours they backed down and the workers won their benefits. This incident showed with what speed the movement in the US can change. It also showed how the militant traditions of the past will be revived in the coming years. And most of all it showed the real balance of forces in The working class is the most powerful force in US society. Whenever it moves to mobilise its power and rely on its own resources, US capitalism will be driven onto the defensive. This is the perspective for the coming years. The of the employers'
revolution will unleash the beginnings of the process of revolution in the US, and in the course of this the working class will rise to its feet. It will transform and extend its industrial organisations and it will also move to independent political action. The US is the only advanced capitalist country where the working class has no political party. This means that while the workers seek to defend themselves against capitalism in the workplace through their unions, at the ballot box they vote for the representatives of capitalism. They are fighting with one arm tied behind their backs. Events in 1986 underlined how the lack of a mass political party weakens US labour and strengthens US capitalism. As 1986 grew to a close the economic crisis in the oil and farming states, and the accumulation of attacks on living standards over his six years in office, threatened Reagan's control over the Senate. His negotiations in Iceland with Gorbachev, which he hoped would paint him in the colours of a peacemaker, backfired. The speculators he had made rich were being exposed as crooks as the 'insider-trading' scandal exploded in Wall Street.
The ballots were still being counted showing his loss of the Senate - overall the Republicans won 48% of the total votes cast to the Democrats 52%--when the Iran/Contra scandal struck. Reagan's popularity fell 20 points in three weeks, an all time record. One third of Americans polled in March 1987 felt that he should resign. The most vicious antiunion President in over 50 years was on the ropes. An opportunity was presented to labour.
With no Labour Party as an alternative the Democrats, while whinning over secondary details, were able to step in and prop up the threatened presidency. US capitalism does not want two Presidents brought down in the course of two decades, as this would weaken further the institution of the Presidency and their ability to influence events at home and abroad.
Labour The AFL-CIO leaders made no comment on the Iran/Contra crisis. After all they had been giving support to Reagan's foreign policy. They could have launched a campaign of demonstrations to call for Reagan to be driven from office, linking this to demands for decent jobs and decent wages, adequate and affordable housing, a free health service and free education, and an end to US capitalism's support for capitalism and landlordism internationally, which condemns the and peasants underdeveloped countries to starvation and vicious repressive regimes. This would have laid the basis for a mass Labour Party to be organised around the union locals, the Labour councils and the This absence of an independent political voice of labour results in opposition to Reagan being reflected in an increase of support for the Democrats. This lack of a Labour Party will see increased illusions developing in the Democrats. 1988 will most probably Democrats hold their majorities in the two Houses of Congress and win the Presidential election.
However the Democrats, if they win in 1988, will hold office in an entirely new The worst recession since the 1930's will be unfolding. The crisis of US capitalism will force them to attack the workers' living standards. The result will be that the very crisis that will put them in power will begin to undermine their support and begin the process of cutting labour's links with the Democrats and laying the basis for a Labour Party. This process will not develop in a straight line. In spite of the crisis US capitalism, faced with a new offensive by the working class can make temporary
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Iran/Contra scandal is not Watergate No direct parallel can be drawn betwen the Iran/Contra scandal and the Watergate crisis of the early 1970's. At that time US capitalism was faced with the unsustainable cost of the unwinnable war in South East Asia. It was faced with the disintegration of its armed forces, the black revolt, the anti-war movement at home and a massive strike wave against its efforts to unload the economic cost of the war onto the backs of the working class through increased taxes, inflation and controls. Withdrawal from the South East Asian war was necessary. Nixon, as President, instead escalated the war in an attempt to get a result he could claim as a victory. At home he moved increasingly in a parliamentary bonapartist direction, concentrating more and more power into his own hands and weakening the control of the Houses of Congress, the legislative branch, over the Presidency, the executive branch. repressive measures home, his escalation of the war his consequent discrediting of the institution of the Presidency in the eyes of the US working class and middle class deepened further the severe crisis then facing US capitalism. As a result US capitalism moved to push Nixon out, putting the blame for the crisis on his shoulders, time restoring the balance between the Houses of Congress and the Presidency more in favour of the The Iran/Contra scandal is rooted in the impasse of US capitalism. It needs to turn around the mood at home to allow it to step up its intervention against the colonial revolution abroad. Over 60% still oppose support for the Contras in Nicaragua. This mood was reflected in the decision of Congress to cut off aid to the Contras for a period in 1985-86. On top of this 78% of Americans believe there concessions. New Deal policies will be dusted off and used again. The recently passed Clean Water Bill, a Transit Highway Bill, and the proposed introduction of catastrophic health insurance to be provided for the elderly by the state shows the kind of measures that will be carried out in the future.
New Deal policies will not overcome the economic crisis. Roosevelt's New Deal did not prevent a new and sharper recession developing in 1938. Nor did it prevent the explosive movement of the CIO. To the exshould be a cut in arms spending. Reagan attempted to change this mood with his rhetoric against the 'evil empire' of the Soviet Union and by exploiting the insane tactics of the individual terror groups abroad. He trumpeted that he was going to stand up to these terror groups and that he would never deal with them nor with the regimes that backed them, including Iran. He bombed Libya supposedly to send a clear message to these groups and regimes that US capitalism would not stand idly by. The real reason for the bombing of Libya was to test and prepare the mood at home for further escalation of military activity in Central America. The defeat of US capitalism in South East Asia in 1975 and the effect this had on the mood of the US working class and middle class, the increased power of the working class and peasantry in the underdeveloped world and the increased power and sweep of the colonial revolution have tilted the balance of forces on a world scale further against US capitalism. It can no longer impose its will on the colonial world by sending in the marines on every occasion when it is faced with a crisis.
Confused This balance of forces compelled Reagan to negotiate and even sell arms to the Khomeini regime in Iran regain US attempt to capitalism's influence in the area. And he was forced to finance the Contras, in spite of this being illegal at the time, as Central America is an area of key strategic importance for capitalism.
It is out of these contradictions which are rooted in the balance of forces worldwide that the Iran/Contra scandal exploded. Reagan's own ineptitude is at most a very secondary factor in the crisis.
Reagan's role as President was tent that they do influence events they will give confidence to the workers to fight back.
It is possible that the new recession could result in a brief hesitancy among the working class to go onto the offensive as unemployment increased rapidly. A 1929 type slump could possibly stun the workers for a short period. If this was the case then a new economic upswing, when it would come, would revive the movement, increase its confidence and unleash a powerful offensive. The 1936-37 moveseen by US capitalism as one of a good public relations man -the 'Great Communicator'. The policies of his administration were to be determined and implemented by US capitalism through its representatives who made up Reagan's cabinet and advisors. As the crisis of US and world capitalism became more severe these advisors increasingly split over policy. At the same time the administration was increasingly consumed by the short term electoral needs of the Republican Party. Reagan's own confused ideas made up from a mixture of old political slogans and halfremembered movie scripts began to intrude more and more into policy making. The contradictions facing US capitalism which would have inevitably surfaced were exacerbated by this development.
Unlike with Nixon in the Watergate crisis US capitalism sees no need to, and does not want to bring down Reagan. On the contrary it wants to prop him up. It is now doing so while at the same time it has removed some of his cabinet members and replaced them with others through whom it can more directly and firmly reestablish control over the administration. It is putting Reagan back in his role as PR man in the division of labour which makes up the regime in the White House. It is very unlikely that Reagan will be pushed out as If it becomes absolutely clear that Reagan had broken the law directly and with full knowledge in the financing of the Contras, it is possible he could become so discredited as to make him unable to carry on as President. In this situation his health would ther' and he would resign for 'health' reasons. However even this is unlikely as the 1988 elections are only 18 months away.
ment which built the CIO coincided with the upswing of 1935-1937.
It is also possible that in spite of the recession the Democrats could win again in 1992. The resistance of the union leaders to take independent political action for fear of the expectations that this would unleash makes this possible. Another factor would be that while more advanced sections of the working class would see through the Democrats and begin to move towards building a Labour Party, the less advanced sections would 25
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MIR Summer 1987: America be only just moving into political activity. These sections, given the role of the union leaders, would initially have illusions in the Democrats and continue to provide a base for them for a period. What is decisive however is that capitalism has no choice but to try and take the working class back to the conditions of the 1930's. The power of the US working class and its expectations will mean that US capitalism will have to use all of its resources in the battle. The Democrats will be forced to expose themselves as no different from the Republicans during this onslaught on labour. At some stage over the next five to ten years this will result in labour taking independent political action and setting up a Labour Party.
This general process of US labour rising to its feet will be shot through with cross currents and contradictions. This is especially so given US capitalism's world role. At present it is attempting to turn around the mood of the US masses to allow them to intervene with large scale military activity in Central America. increasing revolutionary upheavals in this area US capitalism will be pushed more and more in the direction of such large scale military intervention. War Such a development is not absolutely certain however. The revolution in Latin America could reach such heights that US capitalism could not invade as it would be like pouring petrol onto the flames. However US capitalism will not let its control of Central and Latin America slide away from it without the greatest possible exertions.
If large scale US military intervention does take place it could possibly effect the 1988 elections. If it took place just in advance of these elections it could possibly strengthen the Republicans and it could not be excluded that they could win in the elections. This is not likely, however, as the eight vears of falling living standards under Reagan are likely to be decisive. Even if, as seems likely, an arms deal is signed with the Soviet Union it is still likely that the Democrats will win in 1988. If large scale US military intervention does take place it could possibly affect the could temporarily develop in large sections of society. This could cut across the developing mood to fight back. However US capitalism would get bogged down in an unwinnable war in Central America. Over a period a mass anti-war movement would develop against the deaths of the young soldiers and the cost of the war reflected in increased taxes and inflation. A similiar process to that which developed from 1968 to 1975 would open up. During that period the armed forces disintegrated with the rank and file mov- 26 ing into opposition to the war, and the black revolt and youth revolts were merging with the anti-war movement and the strike wave of 1970-75. Nixon could not win in South East Asia, nor could he get a peace that he could portray as a victory. Out of this contradiction Watergate exploded and Nixon was forced to resign. If there had been a mass revolutionary party in the US at that time, a prerevolutionary or even a revolutionary situation could have resulted. capitalism does get involved in a war in Central America in the future it will not be able to win and it will not be able to pull out, as capitalism and landlordism would be overthrown in its wake. The opposition to the war among the working middle class and youth would merge with the rising class anger and US society would be propelled into the front rank of revolutionary events worldwide. Entry into a war could push back the class upheavals and the radicalisation of the US working class for a brief period, only to unleash this process with even greater ferocity at a later stage. The movement when it would come would be at a higher level due to the experience of the war. Entry into a war would not fundamentally cut across the perspective of the greatest movement of the working class in US history.
Not only international events will enrich the movement of the working class that is being prepared in the US. Explosive movements among the specially oppressed minorities will add to this process. Latino workers poverty level has risen from 22% to 29%n between 1979 and 1985. It is now only 2% below the poverty level of US blacks. Events in Central America will combine with this and produce powerful movements of the 20 million strong Latino population. The 28 million black Americans with their heroic traditions of struggle will produce even greater explosions. The gains made by US blacks in the mass revolts of the 1950's and 1960's have been whittled away in the 1970's. Under Reagan attacks on blacks and a racist atomosphere has The increased poverty and repression which has developed has merged with the inspiration US blacks have received from the revolt of South African blacks and the general upsurge in the colonial revolution from the Philippines to Chile, to create a new mood of militancy. A young black construction worker was killed by white racists in New York City in December 1986. Thousands took to the streets. In Georgia 20,000 took part in the largest Civil Rights march in the US since the 1960's. It was against blacks being excluded from an all-white area called Forsyth County. US capitalism felt the first stirrings of a new black revolt. They scuttled to undercut it. Reagan was forced to condemn racism, a special prosecutor was appointed to prosecute the white racist youth in New York City, the National Guard protected the Georgia march and beat up and arrested Ku Klux Klan members.
US capitalism needs racism to divide and rule the working class. However it wants it to remain on the back burner at this stage. It is terrified that it might boil over and result in a new black revolt unfolding. Twenty-seven per cent of the US armed forces are black. A new black revolt would radicalise blacks, Latinos and large sections of the youth and working class as a whole. Entry into Central America would be made extremely difficult by such a development. A new black revolt would also make US foreign policy as a whole in the colonial world and especially in South Africa much more While it looks like the measures taken have cut across a new black revolt in the immediate months ahead, such an explosion is inevitable in the coming period. When it does develop it will increase the tendency to struggle of all workers, and it will increasingly unite and merge with the movement of the youth and workers as a whole to fight for a decent life. Out of this struggle the need to organise in the unions, to build a mass trade union and Labour Party will become more clear. In the course of this development the unity of the working class, black, white, Latino, Asian, native American, men, young and old will be strengthened.
Powder Keg The post war boom was a temporary aberration: US capitalism could concede enormous increases in living standards to the majority of workers. Yet even in that period US society was convulsed with upheavals. In the 1940's there was World War Two, the great strike movement of 1946 and 1947 and the McCarthyite purges. The 1950's saw the Korean War and the begining of the black revolt. The 1960's saw the Vietnam War and the movement against this war merge with the black revolt and in the early 1970's a massive strike movement took place and the crisis of Watergate unfolded. The upheavals over this period illustrated the correctness of Trotsky's analysis of US capitalism. He explained that because of its world role all of the 'powder kegs' of the world were built into its foundations. As the world revolution unfolds in the coming years these powder kegs will be detonated. The past ten years have been exceptionally quiet in US society. There has been no prolonged foreign war, no revolt of specially oppressed minorities, and no strike movement such as those that took place throughout the 1945-1975 period.
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RATICH
A union organiser for the Longshoremen on a recruitment campaign in the 1930s. A new movement will develop and union membership will double and treble in great sweeping unionisation drives in the next 5 to 10 years.
There have been no political crises such as Watergate. This period saw US society draw back in an attempt to avoid the impending cataclysm.
However, during this period all the contradictions of US capitalism were intensifying below the surface of society. In the coming years the tidal movement which is rooted in the economic crisis worldwide, and in US capitalism's special crisis, will sweep US society into the most explosive period since the Civil War of the 1860's.
This time it will not be the capitalist class against the slave-owning class. It will be the working 'class, uniting all the specially oppressed minorities with it, drawing the middle layers behind it, and rising to oppose the capitalist class.
US society is increasingly polarised. The top one per cent own more assets than the bottom 90%. Between 1963 and 1983 the share of wealth of the top half per cent rose by 38% while the share of the bottom 90% fell by 20%. Five hundred corporations, presided over by between five and ten thousand directors, none of whom were elected by the American masses, control between 70% and 80% of the economy and constitute a dictatorship over US society.
The movement to come will shake US society to its foundations. Internationally it will weaken US capitalism even fur-
ther in its efforts to oppose the colonial revolution and the development of revolution in Western Europe and the movement to come in Japan. The sight of the US working class taking action will at the same time inspire these revolutionary movements to even greater heights. It will also inspire the process of the political revolution in the Stalinist world.
Socialism
Leon Trotsky, writing in 1928, saw the revolution coming first in Europe and later in the United States. In the coming five to ten to fifteen years the processes which are maturing in the United States could result in the US working class taking the lead in revolutionary events on a world scale.
The US working class will rise to its feet in the years ahead. If a Marxist leadership is built in the unions and in the Labour Party that will develop in the future the US working class can overthrow capitalism and establish a socialist society in the Unitied States. Such a development would end capitalism and Stalinism, put the working class in power in workers' democracies worldwide, and open up the way to the construction of a socialist world order.
Perspectives
For The United
States of
meri
America
Rob O'Neill
and Tom Williams
January 1986
A Labor Militant Publication
Available from World Socialist Books, 3/1 Hepscott Road, London E9 5HB. £1.30 i cluding postage. Cheques to World Sociali Books.
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