[page 30]
The Sandinistas' defeated
A victory for reaction
Alejandro Rojas examines the reasons for the defeat of the F
and draws out lessons for future struggles.
The recent election defeat of the Sandinista FSLN in Nicaragua will be a big disappointment to activists in the labour movement internationally. It has especially shocked and disorientated the youth of Central and South America who have enthusiastically supported the Sandinista regime. From it they drew encouragement and inspiration, perceiving it as a socialist revolution combating the might of 'Gringo Yanki' imperialism.
Ortega's defeat by the 13 party coalition (VO came as a surprise to both the FSLN leadership and the Nicaraguan bourgeois as well as their backers, US imperialism.
The victory of NO candidate Violeta Chamorro was a victory for the counter-rerolution" UNO, despite the participation of two Communist Parties, is dominated by various bourgeois parties, the largest being the Independent Liberal Party. It has in reality been the political voice in the recent period of the Contras.
As with all victories and defeats there are crucial lessons to be learnt which can strengthen the struggle against landlordism and capitalism. From the very beginning of the revolution,
when the FSLN seized power. the Militant and the MIR warned that the failure of the Sandinistas to complete the revolution and overthrow landlordism and capitalism would eventually pave the way for the counter-revolution. This process is clearly under way. Whether it will be completed, with the bourgeois able to fully regain control, dismantle all the gains of the revolution and establish a relatively stable apparatus. will depend on many factors, not least international developments. The timing of the onset of the forthcoming world recession and the tempo of development of the revolution in the rest of Southern America will be critical.
Marxists have a responsibility to speak the truth, however unpalatable it may be. This defeat unfortunately flows directly from the mistakes of the FSLN leadership and its policy of trying to appease IS imperialism and accommodate itself to landlordism and capitalism. Despite the Sandinistas' control of the state apparatus following the 1979 revolution, they failed to overthrow landlordism and capitalism, leaving the majority (60% ) of the economy in private hands. But neither imperialism nor the
Despite th Sandinista:
control of state they failed to overthrow landlordis and capit:
MIR
[page 31]
300 Spri Vica
MIR 9 15 ague
Daniel Ortega.
national bourgeois accepted state apparatus which was not their own, and therefore unreliable. It left the Sandinistas with the worst of all possible worlds: an economy not under their control and open to sabotage by the capitalists and imperialism, combined with a military offensive by the US-backed remnants of the Somoza state machine in the form of the Contras.
The result was an economic catastrophe for which the Nicaraguan masses footed the bill. In reality all of the initial gains made after the revolution have been taken away. The E'S imposed a trade embargo in 1985, which made a deteriorating situation even worse. With over 50% of GNP committed to defense expenditure the economy has simply collapsed. During 1989 alone industry contracted by 29% and there were 39 successive devaluations. Inflation soared to a record 33,000% per annum in 1988 leading to a massive austerity package in
1 private consumption has fallen by 70% and
real wages by 90% since 1981. By March 1989 the average worker's wage packet could purchase a mere 12% of items in a basic household basket. Unemployment is now higher than under Somoza and living standards actuall! lower. The standard of living has fallen so far as to leave Nicaragua as the nation with the lowest per capita income in the entire Western hemisphere, lower than even Haiti! This collapse, and the absence of any perspective for a way out being offered by the FSLN, was the underlying cause of the election defeat. The Nicaraguan masses became battle weary, both economically and militarily. Fifty thousand were killed in the last two years of the struggle against Somoza. Since then a further 35,000 have died in the war against the Contras.
The FSLN leadership have argued that they had no alternative when confronted with the economic and military might of US imperialism. Such a claim goes right to the heart of the analysis and perspective they adopted for the revolution from the very outset.
The Russian revolution of October 1917, under the leadership of Lenin and Trotsky, provided the classical model for how the revolution could proceed along healthy lines in a backward country. The weak national bourgeois, tied to imperialism, was incapable of completing the tasks of the bourgeois revolution which were posed, that is to say, the development of industry, the solution of the land question, national independence and the establishment of a parliamentary or bourgeois
of
• the beginning, the MIR warned that the failure the Sandinistas to complete the revolution would
eventually pave the way for counter-revolution.
democracy.
The Russian revolution gllighted that in such backward countries those tasks which historically had fallen to the capitalist class, now fell to the proletariat. which even when in a minority could draw behind it the poor peasants and other exploited layers and take over the running of society. Having embarked upon the tasks of the bourgeois revolution, the revolution under the leadership of the working class would inevitably pass on to the tasks posed in the socialist revolution, with its success and future development being dependent upon the unfolding of the revolution in the advanced capitalist countries. It was the isolation of the Russian revolution, after a series of defeats of the workers' movement in critical countries such as Germany, which paved the way for political counter-revolution and the growth of the Stalinist bureaucracy.
In the post-war period a further twist developed in the unfolding of the colonial revolution. In a number of countries, the overthrow of capitalism and landlordism has been carried through but in a distorted manner. With society at an impasse, guerrilla armies based on the peasantry have come to power. often with massive support in cities but where the proletariat, in the absence of a Marxist leadership, has not been consciously at the head of the revolution. Alternatively, even sections of the old state apparatus, utilising mass pressure, have intervened and carried through measures to overthrow landlordism and capitalism. The establishment of a state plan of production marked a massive step forward However these regimes, despite enjoying massive support as in the case of Cuba, were not workers' democracies. The state machine which was established was that of a bureaucratic regime of proletarian bonapartism, resting on a state plan of production but without the proletariat undertaking the management and planning of society.
The overthrow of the Somoza dictatorship in July 1979 was the result of a spontaneous insurrection in the cities. In the absence of any alternative the FSLN found itself thrust into power, but the proletariat did not consciously take over the running of society. Yet at this stage, and for a prolonged period after, the FLN was tremendously popular and enjoyed massive support.
However, a fundamental contradiction was established from the outset. The state apparatus they constructed was on the model of Cuba but the economy, unlike Cuba, remained dominated by the bourgeois despite some nationalisation, especially of the old Somoza estates and factories. The dominant wing of the FSLN leadership followed the so-called twostages theory, of a period of capitalist develop-
[page 32]
dramatically. These bodies never played the Trotsky during the course of the Russian ment and collaboration with the so-called 'progressive wing' of the national capitalist Class.
But the Nicaraguan bourgeois and US imperialism would not accept the Sandinistas who. despite defending a capitalist dominated economy, formed a new state machine that was based upon the forces of the revolution. It was, from the point of view of the bourgeois, unreliable, and threatend at any stage to complete the social revolution, even in a distorted manner, as a result of pressure from below: Given its composition, at the outset of the revolution neither US imperialism nor the national bourgeois felt they could incorporate such a state machine and use it to defend their own interests. They therefore systematically tried to undermine and overthrow it. As with their Cuban counterparts the FSLN leaders envisaged a period of capitalist development. Under the impact of the crisis and the pressure of the masses, however, they did look overthrowing towards at various stages capitalism and landlordism. After 1979 and again in 1985 they went to the bureaucracy in Moscow to seek endorsement. On each occasion they were rebuffed.
Once again the role of the Stalinist bureaucracy in the process of the world revolution was revealed. It opposed the revolution being carried through, even in a distorted way, because this would upset the balance which it sought for itself and imperialism. As Gorbachev explained in his book Perestroika, "rightwing forces portray our interest in Latin America as an intention to engineer a series of socialist revolutions there. Nonsense! The way we have behaved for decades proves that we don't plan anything of the kind... We don't want either its raw materials or its cheap labour. We are not going to exploit anti-US attitudes, let alone fuel them, nor do we intend to erode the traditional links between the US and Latin America." (pp187-88).
In Cuba, despite opposition from Moscow, Castro in 1960 had been left with no alternative but to complete the revolution because of the boycott by US imperialism, which dominated 90% of the economy before it was nationalised. Moscow, confronted with the established fact of the overthrow of capitalism, incorporated Cuba into its orbit. In Nicaragua the FSLN did not take this road but systematically attempted to find an accomodation with the Nicaraguan bourgeois and placate IS imperialism. making concession after concession to its demands. The consequence was the election defeat. reflecting an ongoing process over the past period. Mass participation in the CDS's (Committees for the Detense of the Sandinistas), which reached 500,000 at their peak, had fallen "As we have stated before, if Reagan could wait some years, there might be a serious possibility that the Nicaraguan revolution, stuck half way, would succumb to its internal contradictions and permit the triumph of bourgeois counter-revolution from within." MIR No. 27, Autumn 1984. same role as the soviets in Russia, which acted as the organs of control and management by the working class. While reflecting the enthusiasm which existed for the revolution, they acted as transmission belts for the decisions of the FSLN Directorate, where power was concent- The professional army was increased to 80,000, together with a 10,000 strong police force, while the 'popular militia' was reduced The mass organisations of the FLN became less and less democratic with greater evidence of privileges in the life style of the leaders in the face of growing poverty for the masses. Recently the morale of Sandinista activists and supporters fell dramatically, showing the effects of exhaustion, both economic and military, and the lack of a perspective for a way forward. An interview with one ex-Sandinista, Pablo, reflected what was happening. He simply stated, "I was a radio engineer. Me, a radio engineer, a fighter in the revolution, a Sandinis- Bush.
ta brigade commander and I had to go to the rubbish dump to collect paper to sell to feed my children... It wasn't me who changed it was the Sandinistas who let me down. Im still a revolutionarv." The Independent. 27 Februart 1990.
The growing political degeneration of the FSLN was reflected in the 'Americanisation' of their election campaign. Under the slogan 'Everything will get better, everything was offered except a programme to take the revolution forward. The youth (52% of the population are between the ages of 16 and 28) were giren free condoms in FSLN colours at election rallies and a poster with the caption. The first time is beautiful when you do it with lore US imperialism has matched these developments unfold over a period. They held back from military intervention initially for fear of the consequences in the rest of Central and Latin America. They also feared that after an initial military victory, they would over a period become bogged down in another guerrilla war which they would not be able to win. So with the Sandinista leadership embarked on a programme of appeasing the interests of capitalism. the dominant view of the strategists of 15 imperialism was simply to allow the Sandinista leaders to do the job for them. The election of Chamorro has vindicated such a strategy.
the method adopted by Lenin and Only MIR D31
[page 33]
As the Russian revolution demonstrated, with the Somoza dictatorship and even the return to such a perspective and confidence in the Nicaragua of some ex-contra leaders. defeat not one but 21 armies of foreign in- will continue. However, it will not proceed order to defend the revolution. The failure of maybe around Tomas Borge, who heads the revolution offered any prospect of defeating 320 MIR Spring 1990 imperialism and defending the revolution. The completion of the revolution, with the over- Nicaragua throw of landlordism and capitalism and the establishment of a genuine workers' democracy, would undoubtedly have provoked US imperialism to act. However, with an internationalist perspective, a conscious appeal could have been made for the spreading of the revolution to the rest of Central America and most importantly to Latin America with its more powertul working class. This would have raised the spectre of the defeat of the US, the first steps in the unfolding of the world revolution. Only such an alternative could have offered the Nicaraguan masses the prospect of participating in the defeat of the world's foremost imperialist power.
international proletariat, it was possible to tervention. The proletariat and poor peasants, For the conscious and confident of the development of Sandinista the world revolution, were able to sustain even leaders the greater sacrifices than the Nicaraguan masses in revolution the international revolution, although paving was 'a the way for a political counter-revolution in the national form of the Stalinist bureaucracy, still did not affair'
result in the loss of the social revolution and the gains secured by the nationalised planned economy. Now, however, the impasse of the Stalinist bureaucracies has resulted in at least sections of the ruling bureaucratic clique abandoning the idea of the planned economy and attempting to restore the market and private ownership of the means of production. But for the Sandinista leaders the revolution was, in the words of one of the most 'radical' FSLN leaders, Tomas Borge, "..a national affair". This approach has lead to the advent of counter-revolution and the possible loss of all devastating collapse. the gains of the revolution itself. The election is clearly a serious defeat, one which could have been avoided had the FLN based themselves on the ideas of Lenin and Trotsky and a clear perspective for the international socialist revolution. It does not signify, "In the light of such a rising the impression has been implanted that the Sandinistas are carrying through the socialist revolution. Unfortunately it has been their failure to do exactly that which is now putting the revolution in jeopardy... The bourgeois hope that the support enjoyed by the Sandinistas will be eaten away by the frustrations and dissatisfaction which is developing because of the consequential shortages etc... bring sections of the Contras into the government and in effect overturn the existing state apparatus and replace it with their own." MIR No.34, Spring 1987. American states. however, that the bourgeois have now established a completely stable situation. With 42% of the vote, the FSLN are still by far the largest party in the Assembly and a powerful force. UNO is a very unstable coalition. The UNO leadership clearly intend now to try and incorporate their own representatives into the state apparatus. The majority of the FSLN leadership, grouped around Ortega, seem likely to collaborate with the bourgeois in establishing a more reliable state machine. Exhaustion from the war makes it likely they will succeed. Indeed, even before the elections the Sandinista state was clearly developing tendencies as a bourgeois bonapartist regime, working with the capitalists, banning strikes and agreeing to the demands of US imperialism such as the release of former National Guardsmen of Under the current conditions such a process along an entirely smooth path. The FSLN was established as a coalition of various tendencies and the contradictory pressures have continued. It is quite possible a section of the FSLN, armed forces, will come into conflict and a split develop within the army: Should imperialism and the bourgeois step too quickly they could easily provoke a backlash from sections of the youth around the FSLN who once again could take to the road of guerrilla struggle US imperialism will now take measures to invest in the economy in order to try and stabilise the situation. Indeed this was a factor which gained support for UNO, given the lack of an alternative being offered by the Sandinistas. Bush has pledged an immediate $300m aid package. Such an investment will give the new Government room to make concessions. This may have an effect for a period after such a However, with the onset of a new world economic recession, Nicaragua, like all of Central and South America, will be seriously affected. It will inevitably open up new upheavals and struggle, probably pushing the bourgeois at a certain stage to resort once again to a more ruthless form of rule, if it can construct a reliable state machine to rest upon. How far such a process will develop depends upon the speed with which the movement in Nicaragua recovers from the past decade of struggle and the tempo of the unfolding revolution throughout Latin America.
If the lessons of the experience of the Nicaraguan revolution are learnt they can a future victory of the masses ensure throughout Central and Latin America and the establishment of a Socialist Federation of Latin
[page 34]