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Britain's political crisis ATOR DoES nt Britain will not be an exception to the European rule of political BETTE EUROPE AJOR'S WAY HE NEW YEAR opened with the uprising of T poor peasant farmers in southern Mexico. Symptomatic of the turbulent struggles now unfolding internationally, the Mexican insurgents raised the banner of socialism: We socialism like Cuba, only better!' said one of their leaders.
In Berlin, where workers are experiencing the catastrophic consequences of the market economy; instability and a working class fightback. about 80.000 marched to commemorate Rosa Luxemburg, Karl Liebnecht, and Lenin. Throughout the developed capitalist economies of western Europe, moreover, there has been wave after wave of mass strike action, especially in the public sector. December saw the biggest strike wave in Belgium. for instance, since the Belgium general strike of 1961. France has seen big movements in the public sector (see article on pp18-20). Workers in Britain • 9
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Germany, once the most prosperous and stable European economy, have also been on the move against public sector cuts and job losses. An all-German public sector strike, or even a 24-hour general strike against cuts, is now on the agenda for Germany. Only five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 'death of communism', the prospects for a triumphant capitalism are looking much less favourable.
The Tory Party is being torn apart by an unprecedented crisis.
Britain has appeared to be an exception to the European rule. The economy, according to the Tory government, is set on a path of recovery, unlike other European states which are still experiencing recession. Yet despite four successive general election victories and their claimed 'economic successes', the Tory party, the political representatives of British capitalism, is being torn apart by an unprecedented crisis.
Major, the most unpopular British prime minister since opinion poll records began, has been crippled by his own boomerang - 'Back to Basics'. This ideological fig-leaf was adopted by the leadership last October in an effort to clothe the government with a coherent political strategy. In the hands of the Thatcherite right, however, the policy became a bunch of birch twigs, a political weapon to beat Major further down the road of ruthless 'free market' policies: further deregulation, privatisation and tax cuts for the wealthy. Not only was their narrow, reactionary 'morality' used to justify further cuts in the welfare state, it was deployed against ministers considered to be too 'wet'
In this poisonous political atmosphere, it was inevitable that revelations about the extra-marital affairs of various Tory ministers and the resulting single-parent families should create a series of scandals. The censorious denunciations of the Tory gutter press are so much sanctimonious effluent. Yet the indignation, however synthetic, has struck a powerful chord among the public. There is a massive reservoir of indignation and anger, including among many Tory voters. This arises not so much from the sexual shenanigans of Tory leaders, but from the much more serious scandals, which normally the gutter press does little to illuminate. The catalogue of scandal would run to several large volumes: city and financial frauds, where the culprits have mostly walked away, mocking the 1oa party of law and order; ries' claim to be ministers now presiding over privatised industries; ministers' cronies enjoying lucrative perks from hundreds of quangos established by the Tories; the secret arms trade with Iraq; and the gerrymandering of Westminster and Wandsworth councils. 10 • Britain Why are Tory Press Barons leading the attack? Unusually for a judicial enquiry, the Scott enquiry has begun to lift the veil: it has already shown that despite Thatcher's denunciation of Sadam Hussein, the Foreign Office secretly encouraged the export to Iraq of highly profitable arms-producing equipment, while ministers and civil servants deployed all their talents to conceal the truth from parliament.
The recent district auditor's report on Tory controlled Westminster council provides detailed evidence confirming what everybody really knew already: that one way or another, council houses Tory control of were sold in an effort to retain marginal wards. Similar details are also coming out about Wandsworth, where, with the approval of Tory ministers, similar tactics were used. Major and his cohorts have tried to brush these allegations aside. This is in marked contrast to their righteous indignation when the district audireports were used to hound the left-wing councils of Liverpool and Lambeth from office because they built too many new council homes! HE EXTRAORDINARY FEATURE of the current political crisis, however, is that the is being led by the attack on the Tories formerly loyal Tory press and by figures from the capitalist establishment, like the judges. What explains this peculiar turn of events? The serious strategists of the capitalist class are appalled at the prospect of the splitting apart of the Tory leadership and the slow disintegration of their traditional ruling party. They fear even more the prospect of explosive social upheavals as a result of the decay of the British economy and the legacy of Thatcherism. Backbench MPs quake with apprehension at the profound alienation of large sections
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of traditionally Tory voters.
The strategists of capital face a further unusual problem: the utter incapacity of the Labour Party leaders to lead an effective opposition against the government. The Labour leaders long ago abandoned any idea of mobilising the trade unions and wider sections of workers against the government. Under John Smith's leadership, they have abandoned even the reformist policies of previous Labour governments, and on most issues Labour's frontbench spokesmen echo the Tories' policies. Unchecked by an effective opposition, the lory leaders have established a virtual monopoly of power, which is unhealthy even from the point of view of the ruling class. There is no check on dangerous excesses of policy, no pressure to maintain the cohesion of the Tory party, and no effective check on the growth of patronage and corruption. Faced with this unprecedented situation, a number of Tory papers have come out in opposition to Major's leadership. Their searing criticisms have been reinforced on certain points by leading members of the judiciary and the church. While right-wingers like Portillo rail against the 'cynicism' which is allegedly undermining public institutions, more astute representatives recognise that it is the ruthless promotion of big business interests and the glaring rise in social inequality which is eroding public acceptance of social institutions and traditional codes.
The paymasters of the capitalist press have concluded that Major has outlived his usefulness. They are preparing the ground for an alternative Tory leadership, although they are faced with a lacklustre array of candidates. Moreover, they are privately weighing up the best tactics to deal with a Tory defeat in the next general election. Tens of thousands of public sector jobs will go.
While spokespersons of the City and the CBI of a recovery, there is no real support the idea confidence that the Tory government is in the process of securing a sustained economic upswing. Growth is still consumer led, and despite low interest rates remains fragile. The prolonged, deep recession in Germany and other European economies places strict limits on a recovery of relatively feeble British capitalism. Growth of around 2% (berate of 2.5%) will not wipe out low the 'trend structural, mass unemployment. The real wage levels of millions of workers are being steadily eroded, while casualisation and part-time working, espeworkers, are leading to a cially for women deterioration of conditions. The additional taxes imposed by Clarke's latest budget measures will absolutely reduce the incomes of millions of families during the next year, cutting living standards and restricting the markets for big business. Worse is soon to come. The Tories are desperate to reduce the massive budget deficit, the result of tax increases to the rich and the escalating cost of mass unemployment. In the coming months, further tens of thousands of public sector jobs will go. The benefit levels of tens of thousands of claimants, especially those of the young unemployed, will be further cut. The longer term plans floated by Portillo and other right-wingers, would mean a disastrous cut in benefit and pension levels. Over the coming months, the effects of these measures will provoke massive movements. At the end of last year, over a quarter of a million civil servants joined a day of action against government cuts, the biggest public sector strike for a decade. In the coming months, millions of workers in Britain will join workers in Europe in mass action against policies of capitalist crisis. If there is no lead from above, from the trade union and labour leaders, then initiatives will develop from below. The craven Labour leaders believe that mass action by the workers will upset their long-term election strategy, which is to use the media to present Labour as a safe, respectable alternative government. When there is such deep-rooted, seething discontent amongst all sections of the population, however, bold action by workers will receive wide support from other sections. This has been shown recently in the other European countries, and will prove to be the case in Britain too. This will develop through a series of battles, as the pent up grievances of section after section explode. According to all the opinion polls, the Tories electoral support has been deeply undermined. They will undoubtedly suffer big losses in the local government elections in May and also in the European elections. It is now likely that there will be moves in the next period to replace Major as Tory leader, in an attempt to improve the party's standing. Nevertheless, in the event of a general election, which could be brought forward by the developing crisis, it is most likely that the Tories would suffer a defeat. This, however, would be on the basis of an tidal wave of anti-Tory feeling - not a strong pro-La- Given the massive scepticism about the Labour leaders among workers, and also because of the anti-Labour bias of the constituency boundaries, it is by no means certain that Labour will form the next government. In the southern part of the country in particular, the Liberal Democrats could act as an alternative for disenchanted Tory voters. There would be the possibility of a minority Labour government, dependent on support from the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties - which would inevitably be a government of crisis. The big movements in Europe have put socialism back on the agenda for the advanced layers of workers and youth. The same process will unfold in Britain, as struggles bring a renewal of the workers' movement - and the successes already achieved by Scottish Militant Labour will be extended by Militant Labour throughout Britain.
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